Views and Analysis
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Oct 28, 2026
Flight to Safety or Flight from Carry?
Oct 21, 2026
Confidence Revisited: The Distribution of Information
Jun 4, 2026
Policy Regimes versus Economic Regimes
Sep 10, 2026
Predictive Power of Inferred Fed Surprises
Federal Reserve (Fed) policy expectations are a major driver of financial markets, yet traditional measures of Fed surprises are only available around FOMC announcements. This paper develops “inferred Fed surprises”, a real-time framework that extracts changes in expected Fed policy from daily movements in interest rate markets, allowing investors to monitor how monetary policy expectations evolve between official policy decisions. We show that these inferred surprises contain valuable information ...
Jul 30, 2026
The AI-Energy Nexus
The rapid buildout of artificial intelligence infrastructure is reshaping energy markets through a direct physical channel: data center electricity demand. In this paper, we show that clean energy equities are significantly more sensitive to data center infrastructure returns than traditional energy equities, reflecting their exposure to long-duration investment and grid expansion dynamics. While AI technology indices appear to explain energy returns in simple specifications, their explanatory power ...
Apr 24, 2026
How do Global Portfolio Investors Hedge Currency Risk?
We study how institutional investors hedge foreign exchange risk using more than 25 years of monthly portfolio data from a global custodian, matching asset holdings with FX forward positions for U.S.- and non-U.S.-based investors. Fixed-income investors hedge more than equity investors, non-USD investors hedge more than USD investors, and hedging has risen markedly since 2008. Many investors appear to target and rebalance toward stable hedge ratios. Hedge ratios are related to carry, volatility, ...
Nov 3, 2026
What We Said this Month
Energy-driven inflation reaccelerated in September, pushing central banks and markets firmly hawkish, with over 930bp of G10 hikes now priced for the next 12 months. That repricing looks aggressive against negative real wage growth in five G10 economies, and it leaves sovereign bonds more exposed than equities, where earnings still drive the rally. The clearest dislocation sits in Japan, where rates markets fully price BoJ tightening but investors remain short the yen.
Oct 28, 2026
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Oct 12, 2026
Redefining the Investment Edge in the Age of AI
Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming the way investment managers work, but gaining a durable edge still depends on differentiated information, thoughtful analysis, and trusted expertise. We view AI as the connective layer that helps investors bring together differentiated data, research, and analytical capabilities to make more informed decisions, faster. Instant Query (iQ), our AI-powered system within our Insights research platform, enables clients to seamlessly explore, access, and curate ...
Nov 2026
Blue’s Next: The 2026 Midterm Market Wrap Up
A surprisingly strong midterm election for US Democrats opens a myriad of questions for markets. From the scale of AI investment to the path of the Iran conflict, the changes in the makeup of the US government carry significant financial implications. Noel Dixon and Cayla Seder, senior macro strategists from our team in the US, join host Tim Graf for a wrap-up and look ahead.
Oct 2026
Sniffing Out Market Volatility
Big headlines have come and gone in 2026, but markets have barely blinked. This week we explore why volatility remains so subdued, what investors may be overlooking and the macro and market catalysts that could finally disturb the calm. Lee Ferridge, Head of Macro Strategy for the Americas at State Street Markets, joins the podcast with his thoughts as a surprisingly benign year nears a close.
Oct 2026
Yen, Rates and Capital Flows: The View from Tokyo
Japanese life insurers manage one of the largest pools of foreign savings in the world, and their decisions about where to put it and whether to hedge it ripple through global bond markets and the yen. With domestic rates normalising, the story of persistent yen weakness may be starting to change. In this episode, we sit down with Shintaro Yoshida, CIO of Orix Life Insurance, to discuss how rising JGB yields are reshaping the domestic-versus-foreign allocation decision, whether repatriation is a ...
Feb 2026
A step on the brakes
Holdings Institutional portfolios stayed strongly tilted towards equities, with stock allocations at their highest since 2007 and bond allocations at their lowest since 2008, while the US remained a clear regional overweight. Risk Appetite Risk appetite eased back to neutral after a mid month lift, as Fed uncertainty and liquidity concerns encouraged a more cautious mix, with selective risk still expressed in emerging market bonds and FX and high yield versus investment grade.
Dec 2025
Investors neutral amidst data uncertainty
Holdings Institutional portfolios remain heavily overweight in US equities and technology, favouring quality, growth and large caps, with stock allocations at an eighteen‑year high and bonds and cash still out of favour.
Nov 2025
One Step Forward, One Step Back
Holdings Institutional portfolios remain heavily overweight in US, Tech, and growth oriented styles, with stock allocations at an 18-year high. Risk Appetite The risk appetite index has dropped to neutral as investors rotate out of cyclicals and commodities into defensives and the US dollar.
1. Peter L. Bernstein Award for Best Article in an Institutional Investor Journal in 2013; Bernstein-Fabozzi/Jacobs-Levy Award for Outstanding Article in the Journal of Portfolio Management in 2006, 2009, 2011, 2013 (2), 2014, 2015, 2016, 2021; Graham & Dodd Scroll Award for article in the Financial Analysts Journal in 2002 and 2010. Roger F. Murray First Prize for Research Presented at the Q Group Conference in 2012, 2021, 2023. Harry M. Markowitz Award for Best Paper in the Journal of Investment Management in 2022, 2023. Doriot Award for Best Private Equity Research Paper in 2022.