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Dec 2025
The Best Reads of 2025
Just before Christmas, it’s tradition for the Macro Strategy Team at State Street Markets to publish recommendations of the best things we've read, listened to or watched over the previous year. Common patterns often emerge and it is often the case that our choices are informed by our work analyzing macroeconomics and markets. But as you're about to hear, many of the choices have nothing to do with our day jobs. This year, we published our 12th edition of that list, available now on our Insights ...
Dec 2025
Trading Notes for ‘26
After getting the year-ahead views of the Macro Strategy team at State Street Markets last week (which you can listen to here), this week we hear from our FX Trading team. Questions of central bank independence and policy divergence top the list of risk factors for 2026, with implications of the AI investment cycle also factoring heavily into a macro outlook. We catch up with Peter Vincent, EMEA Head of Trading, for his thoughts on the state of the US labor market, inflation, policies of the Federal ...
Dec 2025
The 12 Trades of Risk-mas: A 2026 Macro Outlook
The Macro Strategy Team at State Street Markets has published their top ideas for the year ahead. Will the tech stock bull run continue, or are recent, rising credit concerns enough to derail sentiment and valuations? Was 2025's dollar decline the beginning of a multi-year trend or is the buck on the brink of reversal? And are Japan's recent attempts at reflation about to stall or take the next step to success? We present a dozen ideas, across equities, fixed income and FX, all with an eye on which ...
Nov 2025
Imbalanced Accounts: Trade and Capital in 2025
The signal events and dominant narratives of 2025 have not had quite the advertized effects where global current account and capital flow trends are concerned. As Brad Setser, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, notes, tariffs raise revenue for the US but so far its external position relative to Asia has, if anything, worsened. De-dollarization has been an eye-catching idea that still has little basis in fact. The expected revaluation of currencies relative to the USD has been much ...
Nov 2025
Global Competition and Its Trade Offs with Elliot Hentov
This week, we dive into the nuanced world of macroeconomics and geopolitics. Elliot Hentov, Chief Macro Policy Strategist at State Street Investment Management, joins us to explore the state of deglobalization and the current status of geo-strategic competition in trade, technology, energy production and capital allocation. As we navigate the shocks of recent years and move towards a new equilibrium, the discussion focuses on the trade-offs embedded in each aspect of these competitions and the pressures ...
Nov 2025
Growth Beyond the AI Trade: Where Next?
Q3 earnings look like a prelude to a Santa rally, capping off another strong year for stocks. Sticking with a holiday theme, we can give thanks later this month for the outsized contribution of tech stocks to investor returns. But the AI narrative driving stocks in recent years is by now well understood and valuations look stretched. This week, we spend much of our time with Marija Veitmane, Head of Equity Strategy at State Street Markets, on where else to look for growth opportunities in global ...
Oct 2025
The US Dollar Downtrend: Dawn or Denouement?
A stand-out macro trend of 2025, the weakness of the US dollar remains a focal point for a market that is still heavily short. Is the consensus risk ripe for a surprise or are further headwinds in store for the world's most widely traded currency? And how might macroeconomic developments in Japan, Europe and the UK add to or detract from the appeal for dollars? This week, we discuss these factors and the broader FX landscape for developed markets, with Lee Ferridge, Head of Macro Strategy for the ...
Oct 2025
Convexity, Resilience and Building Better Brakes
Investors underestimate the probability of tail risk events and assume market correlations will be stable. These are well-understood yet persistent blind spots that damage long-term portfolio performance. This week, we talk to David Dredge, CIO of Convex Strategies, as he shares his experiences and perspectives on the importance of overcoming these biases and incorporating convexity exposure, towards building greater resilience, maximizing compounding effects in return streams and optimizing for ...
Oct 2025
Fundamentals over FOMO: Value Investing in the Age of AI
Growth stocks are driving returns and economic dynamism, but also sparking discussions of whether we sit in bubble territory. Our guest this week, Matt Smith, portfolio manager at QSM Asset Management, a long/short hedge fund with a value focus, provides a timely reminder of how a consistent, fundamental-oriented approach can still offer compelling risk-adjusted returns. We also walk through current equity markets and how modest pullbacks in the AI trade could pose economic problems
Oct 2025
Shutdown Economics
A shutdown of the US government raises myriad questions, particularly what economic impacts might be felt in the near-term and the bigger picture puzzle of how to assess the state of the economy when public data from government statistical agencies is delayed or unavailable. This week, we take a deep dive on those questions, with a focus on the September US CPI release as a test case for how to think about and use alternative data sets. We are joined by PriceStats co-founder Alberto Cavallo, global ...
Oct 2025
Constructing the Macro Mosaic
Drawing on decades of experience as a policymaker, investor and trader, Mark Dow joins us this week, as we thread the currents driving the global macroeconomy together into a cohesive whole. From tariffs, inflation, US labor supply issues and Fed independence, to gold, the dollar, debt and deficits, with a side trip to Argentina in between, few stones are left unturned in this macro masterclass.
Sep 2025
Gilt Trip: Budgets, UK Politics and the Path of Populism
The British pound and gilts already face heavy scrutiny from markets, ahead of what could be a politically defining budget process for the UK Labour Party later this Autumn. As our guest this week details, a politically possible outcome that also keeps bond markets happy looks very difficult to achieve, potentially setting up for a period of volatility for UK assets and sterling. Helen Thomas, CEO of BlondeMoney, is back on the podcast to walk through the constraints on the government imposed both ...
Sep 2025
No More Fear Left for Fall?
Summer is giving way to autumn and risk markets see few signs of a fall. It's not for lack of potential threats. Questions of Fed independence swirl and the US economy offers in equal parts the potential to either slow sharply or re-accelerate and threaten hopes for easier policy. The path of inflation is still an open question. Emerging threats to fiscal and political stability in Europe and the UK are once again on the market's mind. But none of these risks seem to demand higher risk premia, at ...
Aug 2025
Jackson Hole and Beyond: Labor Pains for the Fed
The investing world awaits the message from the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Symposium this weekend. As an event, historically it can often disappoint those looking for answers. Expectations for clear guidance on near-term Fed policy seem low this year. Chairman Jay Powell regularly reminds markets (and politicians) that the two elements of the central bank's mandate are now in conflict. Trade tariffs are likely to boost inflation for a while longer and have delayed a more aggressive easing cycle. ...
Aug 2025
The Buck Stops Where? FX Risk-Proofing for the Long Term
Currency markets can be a lot like equity markets in that over or under-valuations can stay stretched for longer than one might think possible, before mean reversion inevitably kicks in. Maintaining an effective FX process for the long-term requires special attention to these questions of fair value, while also keeping an eye on the day-to-day headlines and short-term price dislocations that offer opportunities for alpha. Aaron Hurd, a senior portfolio manager at State Street Investment Management, ...
Aug 2025
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Jul 2025
The Summer 2025 Market Watchlist
Street Signals has had its mini-hiatus and is now back for most of the rest of the summer. This week, host Tim Graf walks through the big questions hanging over markets, some of which will need to be considered in the coming weeks, before the flip flops are put back in the closet and trading desks are back to fully staffed. We ponder what's next for equity markets, whether we'll actually start to soon see strong tariff-fueled inflation and whether the US dollar is at another inflection point after ...
Jul 2025
Marvin Barth: The Framework of a Second American Century
The period following the Second World War is often referred to as the American Century, when the rise of the United States to global hegemon accelerated and solidified. Those who take a keen interest in the global political economy are starting to wonder if that era is coming to a close. But the volatility of US policy in recent years, as much as it gives rise to questions over whether this period of American exceptionalism is at an end, also carries with it many elements which could herald its ...
Jul 2025
The Big Beautiful Podcast on Tax Cuts and Tariffs
The calm after the storm of April's volatility has been maintained, despite a massive fiscal expansion passing through Congress and being signed by the President, and the end of the deferral period for most of the tariffs initially announced at the start of Q2. As we await the economic impacts of the One Big Beautiful Bill and the onset of significantly higher tariffs on most of the US' trading partners, Noel Dixon, a senior macro strategist on the team at State Street Markets, returns to the podcast ...
Jun 2025
The Temperature Rises, Markets Keep Their Cool
In this 100th episode of Street Signals, a theme ever-present throughout its two-year history comes to the fore once again: the ability of financial markets to come to grips with and move past seemingly implacable uncertainty. Q2 2025 alone provided what felt like a decade's worth of seismic and (theoretically) negative shocks to sentiment, yet equity markets have recovered quickly and are poised to push to new all-time highs, while many traditional safe haven currencies are on the back foot. This ...
Jun 2025
Yuan Direction: Asian FX, Oil and the US Rate Outlook
Markets are still grappling with global trade and fiscal policies in flux and we were reminded this week that geopolitical risk is never out of the frame for too long. The broadening of hostilities in Israel and Iran necessarily extends the vigilance of policymakers for first and second order impacts on their economies, carrying with it potential implications for currency and interest rate markets, in particular. This week, we look at how all-important reserve managers and governments in Asia are ...
Jun 2025
US Equities: Complacently Crowded or Suddenly Safe?
Quantified measures of US trade and economic policy uncertainty are no longer at all-time highs, yet the global growth outlook for the rest of 2025 can still only be judged through a glass darkly. Indigestion of expanded supply in global fixed income markets similarly clouds the appeal of risky assets. Which makes the resilience of equity markets, and particularly the reversal in US stocks back towards all-time highs, all the more impressive. Marija Veitmane, our global head of equity strategy, joins ...
May 2025
Craig Fuller: Tariffs and Twists in Global Supply Chains
The near-constant fluctuation of tariff rates and their implementation dates has rendered economic forecasting an exercise in futility, at both the macro and micro level. But when supply chain disruptions loom, it’s best to hear from Craig Fuller, CEO and founder of FreightWaves, a provider of near real-time data and analysis on all phases of delivery in the global goods economy. From container shipping and port data to domestic trucking rates, the insights provided by Craig and his team are invaluable ...
May 2025
Gold Rush 2.0: Putting the Pedal to the Metal
Robin Tsui, APAC Gold Strategist at State Street Global Advisors, joins the podcast to break down what’s driving the surge in demand for gold over the past three years. From inflation fears to geopolitical risk, gold has reclaimed its shine as both a safe haven and strategic asset. Robin explains how central bank buying, ETF flows, and shifting investor sentiment are shaping the gold market – and what it could mean for the rest of 2025. Whether you’re a bullion believer or a curious sceptic, this ...
May 2025
No Country For Old Macro Men
After an episode of extreme, headline-driven volatility in April, financial markets have shifted to docility in May. Position risks in equity and FX markets are now much reduced and, absent further clarity on US trade and fiscal policies, a wait-and-see approach is the order of the day. Fatigue has set in and, as our guest this week, Lee Ferridge, Head of Macro Strategy for the Americas at State Street Markets, notes, high conviction views are in short supply. This week on the podcast, we think ...
May 2025
Repricing Markets for US Political Risk
Underperformance of US Treasuries and the dollar during recent market turmoil begs the question of whether the safe haven status of the US, long taken for granted, will be as easily conferred in future times of trouble. Following the imposition of larger than expected tariffs on US trade partners, It served as a warning that US assets and the currency might require higher risk premia than previously appreciated. Mark Rosenberg, in his capacity as co-founder and CEO of GeoQuant, has considered and ...
Apr 2025
Alberto Cavallo: Tracking the Price Impacts of US Tariffs
As financial markets continue to adjust for the ramifications of a global reordering of trade relationships, the first evidence of the impact of tariffs on consumer prices is starting to emerge. Drawing on work that offers an almost real-time monitor of online goods prices, Professor Alberto Cavallo from Harvard Business School and co-founder of PriceStats is back on the podcast to discuss his work in measuring inflation trends past and present. Alberto and his colleagues have already written new, ...
Apr 2025
Bear With Us? Talking Markets Amidst the Maelstrom
Market volatility is subsiding but risk managers are still determining whether the recent, sharp moves and unusual correlation dynamics in stocks, bonds and currencies have run their course, or if they were preludes to upsets to come. The trade discussion is sure to roll on for the next several months and fiscal policy dynamics are likely to evolve in ways markets must consider. The key question is whether the repricing thus far across assets is sufficient. This week, Street Signals changes its ...
Apr 2025
Tariffs: The Price Is Fright
The scale of the Trump Administration's tariffs, announced last week, took even the most pessimistic of investors by surprise. Seemingly underestimating the breadth and size of trade barriers imposed by the US on all its trading partners, markets continue to come to grips with the short and long term implications across assets. Economists and observers continue to try to wrap their heads around what the global trading system, with the US dollar sitting at its center, could look like in the future. ...
Apr 2025
Trading Around Trade
By the end of today, economists and financial market participants are hoping to be in a better position to understand and assess the impact of proposed tariffs on the United States’ largest trading partners. Of course, if the last three months are any guide, all such news on trade is subject to negotiation and compromise. Having had to deal with a barrage of ever-evolving headlines since the start of 2025, Dan Mazza, head of FX Forwards trading in the Americas, joins the podcast, to discuss how ...
1. Peter L. Bernstein Award for Best Article in an Institutional Investor Journal in 2013; Bernstein-Fabozzi/Jacobs-Levy Award for Outstanding Article in the Journal of Portfolio Management in 2006, 2009, 2011, 2013 (2), 2014, 2015, 2016, 2021; Graham & Dodd Scroll Award for article in the Financial Analysts Journal in 2002 and 2010. Roger F. Murray First Prize for Research Presented at the Q Group Conference in 2012, 2021, 2023. Harry M. Markowitz Award for Best Paper in the Journal of Investment Management in 2022, 2023. Doriot Award for Best Private Equity Research Paper in 2022.