Insights | Research from State Street Markets

What We Offer

Anticipate market trends with data-driven measures of aggregate flow and positioning, high-frequency inflation, media sentiment, risk regimes, and more.

New Ideas

Unlock new investment angles with award-winning research on themes including AI, private markets, investment strategies, geopolitics, and beyond.

Macro Strategy

Gain deeper vision on market turning points, risks, and opportunities with daily views and analysis on equity, fixed income, and currency markets.

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Engage with the latest analysis, interactive charts, analytic tools, calculation APIs, and more with real-time tools on our Insights platform. Available on desktop and mobile devices.

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Latest Research

Views and Analyses

Gain deeper vision on market turning points, risks, and opportunities with daily views and analysis on equity, fixed income, and currency markets.

Research Papers

Unlock new investment angles with award-winning research from collaborations with our roster of 10+ academic partners on themes including Al, private markets, investment strategies, geopolitics, and beyond.

Institutional Investor Indicators

The State Street Institutional Investor Indicators provide investors, policymakers, and the public with insights into the aggregated and anonymized positioning, risk appetite, and portfolio carbon exposures of thousands of institutional investors around the world, representing trillions of dollars in assets.

Partnerships

Academic Partners

Through our network of partnerships with renowned academics, we are constantly searching for the perfect blend of deep expertise and disruptive thinking that leads to valuable ideas.

Data Partners

Strategic partnerships extend our research vision with distinctive indicators of economic and market activity, providing a real-time pulse on emerging trends and uncovering patterns that others miss.

Measuring Market Froth

By Rajeev Bhargava, Michael Guidi, Robin Greenwood, Zachary Crowell

Nov 7, 2022

We define equity markets and sectors to be “frothy” when the probability of a future drawdown in prices is high. Using simple panel regressions, we analyze data across 80 countries and 400 country-sectors to identify and evaluate which factors--including issuance, volatility, the price path, and flow-based factors-- are most predictive of future sector-level drawdowns. We translate our predictive model into indicators for sector- and market-level froth.

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1.Peter L. Bernstein Award for Best Article in an Institutional Investor Journal in 2013; Doriot Award for Best Private Equity Research Paper in 2022; Bernstein-Fabozzi/Jacobs-Levy Award for Outstanding Article in the Journal of Portfolio Management in 2006, 2009, 2011, 2013 (2), 2014, 2015, 2016, 2021; Roger F. Murray First Prize for Research Presented at the Q Group Conference in 2012 and 2021; Graham & Dodd Scroll Award for article in the Financial Analysts Journal in 2002 and 2010.